The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 1 upgraded its monsoon forecast and said the country would receive “normal to above normal” rainfall with “well distributed” showers in the June-September period. The Southwest Monsoon is likely to be normal in the north and south India, above-normal in central India and below-normal in the east and northeast India.
Releasing its Second Long Range Forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2021, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said that the monsoon this year is likely to be normal in the country as a whole.
“Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 101 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent,” he said.
In its first-stage monsoon forecast in April, IMD said the rainfall was likely to be 98% of LPA after two years of above-average rainfall.
However, small areas of north-west India, Bihar, Assam, northern West Bengal, Meghalaya, Ladakh and the western part of the south peninsula, may get “below normal” rainfall during the four-month season. In northwest India, parts of Himachal Pradesh, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh, including areas in Delhi-NCR, may fall in this category.
The prediction also indicates that there would be no shortage of rains for farming operations as the entire “monsoon core zone”, which consists of the rain-fed agriculture regions of the country, is likely to get “above normal” rainfall. Monsoon onset over Kerala is expected around Thursday. Its gradual progress will kick off kharif (summer) sowing operations which are mostly dependent on rains.
India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the four-month season that is crucial for the country’s farm-dependent economy and for rice, soybeans, and cotton cultivation. A normal monsoon this year will significantly help the agriculture sector.