The third wave of Coronavirus could be as severe as the second wave and could last for an average duration of 98 days, according to SBI report. However, the report stated that the number of covid-related deaths would be reduced by increasing vaccinations and improvement of health infrastructure.
“Average duration of third wave for top countries is 98 days and that of second wave is 108 days, with third wave peak as a multiple of second at 1.8 and second wave as a multiple of first at 5.2 (for India it was at 4.2),” the report stated.
It is also observed that in the third wave, if we are better prepared, the decline in serious case rate will lead to less number of deaths.
“It is also observed that in the third wave if we are better prepared, the decline in serious case rate will lead to less number of deaths. We find out that if serious cases decline from 20% to 5% (due to better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination) in the third wave, then the number of deaths in third wave could significantly reduce to 40,000 as compared to current deaths of more than 1.7 lakh. So vaccination should be the key priority, especially for the children who could be the next vulnerable group. With around 15-17 crore children in the 12-18 age bracket, India should go for an advanced procurement strategy like that adopted by developed nations to inoculate this age group,” the SBI Ecowrap report said.
According to official data, around 162,000 people in India had lost their lives to Covid-19 till March-end. India reported 1,32,788 new coronavirus cases on June 2 taking the country’s tally of COVID-19 cases to 2,83,07,832, while the daily positivity rate has further dropped to 6.57 per cent.
However, Better health infrastructure and rigorous vaccination could lead to a decline in serious Covid cases, subsequently reducing coronavirus-related deaths as compared to current deaths.